The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century by George Friedman
I read non-fiction intermittently when a good title catches my eye or I hear about a book on NPR. This book came to my attention while I was browsing the New York Times best seller list. It reminded me of the type of forecasting I learned about during the Mid-Atlantic Library Future’s Conference in May 0f 2007. Ray Kurzweil and Bob Treadwayspecifically touched on processes similar to those used by Friedman to predict future events.
Friedman begins by closing the door on the European Age and the dawn of the American Age (the 21st century). His mantra: Expect the unexpected. China will fragment and therefore exclude it from being a major player in the 21st century. Japan, Poland, and Turkey will emerge as threats to the United States and require monitoring. The battleground for late 21st century war will take place in space.
All of Freidman’s geopolitical forecasting is founded on a handful of statements. First, that “the inherent power of the United States coupled with its geographic position makes the United States the pivital actor of the twenty-first century” (p 5). The U.S. has access to both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans with naval bases around the world as well as a presence in space.
Secondly, “the United States doesn’t need to win wars. It needs to simply disrupt things so the other side can’t build up sufficient strength to challenge it” (p 5). The current U.S. – Jihadist war, for example, has effectively kept the Islamic world fragmented. A unified enemy is much harder to defeat.
And finally, the United States owes much of its current power to its well armed and advanced global navy. The future of its power will reside in advancements in space. “Where humanity goes, war goes. And since humanity will be going into space, there will be war in space” (p 183).
Backing Friedman’s forecast for war in space and the use of robots is P.W. Singer’s presentation (Military Robots and the Future of War) on the current state of robotics in military use or prototype stages during the TED convention (filmed February 2009).
This book has challenged much of what I thought I understood. As I read it, I often thought, “I don’t know what I don’t know.” Of course, anyone who has read Ursula Le Guin’s “The Ones Who Walk Away from Omelas” will understand the concept of ‘utopia’ (industrialized countries) based up on the abject suffering of others (third and even second-world countries). As the United States exerts its will to remain the global superpower, other countries will be forced to keep to themselves, to keep quite (though many will not), else risk the subtle wrath of an economic, political and militaristic giant (and so be chastised). After reading The Next 100 Years,I am put in my place, if you will. It is humbling and humiliating to realize what our position has cost us morally and what it will continue to cost but I am not so hypocritical as to denounce our actions. Nor do I see droves of the religious walking away from Omelas.
Perhaps our comfort and complacency will lead to our eventual collapse, but, according to Friedman, it won’t happen in my life time, nor that of my children’s. And there is no guarantee that our successor will be any more judicious. In fact, Friedman’s mise en scene slants toward Machiavellianism.
Now, what does this mean for Libraries? Equality within an unequal and chaotic system? Truth within a corrupt system? Compassion within a cruel system? Because Freidman’s forecasting is based on one more important truth: history repeats itself. We are, essentially, stuck in a system, following a pattern of behaviour driven by a fundamental truth: we cling to that which we were born into – our country. Countries that have fought will fight again. Countries that have crumbled from within will do so again, and this time, their vulnerability in a global society will spell almost certain doom for them.
Libraries as Conversation
Why I adore Dave Lankes, my former Prof.:
“Libraries do what we tell them to do because they’re people driven organizations. Librarians are what make libraries… If we want the library to really reflect the user, the patrons, the communication, the human part of knowledge, that’s a decision we make. And those decisions are how we structure libraries and how we create libraries and how we innovate… And everyone from people manning the desk, to running the library, to working the budget are in charge of figuring out what that future’s going to be.”
Mary Catherine Bateson: Keynote Speaker
Mary Catherine was the keynote speaker on Tuesday at the Mid-Atlantic Library Futures Conference. Here are the bare-bones notes!
Librarians love books/information
Children teach adults how to be parents (couldn’t agree more)
Our understanding of other humans has changed repeatedly over the last century. We had to adjust our perspectives:
- women’s rights
- civil rights
- equality for homosesexuals
- disabled persons rights
Librarians are stewards of transformations.
Life expectancy – short-term v. long-term decisions/plans
We are a society that thinks on the short-term
There is a great value to those with memory. They help us survive.
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During the Q&A period, someone asked, “The boomers are coming! I’ve been saying it for years and finally they are knocking on our doors. What needs to be done to get libraries off their butts and address this?”
Mary answered… “Never has society supported youth over adults as they do now”
I disagree with this. I reported earlier on Bruce Coville’s speech at the NJLA Luncheon: “Children as actually despised by our culture. Today, they are consumers, stripped of any opportunity to meaningfully contribute to society. Currency is power. Adult men have power, kids have none and women are in the middle. We live in a short-term society where real power is long term.”
Mary seems to understand the latter part here but I agree with Coville. Today’s society is ill-equiped to raise children–relying on old models to teach a society completely changed. Children are babied through their 20s! This means they rely on their parents, join gangs, or are in other ways a complete waste of space. We are simply doing a terrible job of supporting our youth.
Bob Treadway
Bob Treadway and Associates
Presentation Title:
20/20 Foresight: How to look into the future
Bob’s speech was a perfect compliment to Ray’s! They balanced each other out and gave a holistic point of view.
- look ahead
- regularly contemplate
- Prediction: biggest mistakes
- trying to be absolutely right
- looking ahead narrowly through your expertise or comfort zone
- no accounting for uncertainty and uninteded consequences
- instead Forecast! (Defined as foresight that accounts for uncertainty and adjust over time)
- Uncertainties: The Cone of Relative Certainty
“Predicting rain doesn’t count. Building arcs does”
You need a foresight filter; an alertness always turned on. Implication: consequence –> result –> after-effect
Customer of the Future – what will they want? What can we predict?
Range One: Relative Certainty
globalization
near-term economy
demographic progression
aging, retiring workers
pressure on funding
higher cost
Range Two: If A then B
elections
legislation
regulatory change
The Opinionated, Empowered Consumer
- 82% are strongly self-confident
- 81% trust only their opinion
- 72% say they’re better than anyone else
How did the American consumer get to this point?
- economic stability
- Internet
- collaboration
- globalization
- instant gratification
- telling children they’re special and important
- Do It Yourself era
Push v. Pull (ex. TiVo) : What I want, when I want it
Knowledge Hierarchy
data –> information –> knowledge –> expertise –> wisdom
The first two, Google can help with. Librarians can handle the last three!
Range Three: Boundaries
- operating cost
- consumer expectations
Range Four: Uncertainties
- 15-20 year time horizons
- visonary leadership
- legal, regulatory roadblocks
- societal reactions
- avian flu jump
Work with SCENARIOS 
Ray Kurzweil: Keynote Speaker
Kurzweil Technologies, Inc.
Author
Mid-Altantic Library Futures Conference 2007
Presentation Title:
Early in the Twenty-first Century: Knowledge will Underlie Everything
Ray delivered a dense, intense speech forecasting “with certainty” events that will take place in the next decades based on past trends. Below are notes on his speech [PowerPoint Slides].
Change is exponentially increasing (not constant in its growth but accelerating even in the speed of change). This applies to many information fields: Education, Health, Technology and soon Energy (as everything is fundamentally energy). Codify field: apply information theory to matter and energy meeting 100% of our needs (nanotechnology).
Democratized tools to create knowledge (the spread of movie making capability, sound recording, etc).
Yes, change is exponential but it does run out. Paradigm run for a while then subside… but a new paradgm is then created. The next step for Technology will be 3 dimensional.
We can predict overall trends but not individual success. The system is too chaotic but the final outcome can be clearly predicted.
Technology is shrinking! Software is buried in our infrastructure (in cell phones, medical equipment) and we don’t recognize its huge presence.
[Slide 54] Reverse Engineering the Brain: The ultimate source of the templates of intellegence
Information Technology growth is driving the economy. We can find clues to improving technology by studing how the brain works. How does a child that doesn’t know complicated mathmatics catch a fly ball with accuracy?
Ray predicts that in 2010, computers will disappear. Images will be written directly over ones retina. Ubiquitus high bandwidth connection to the Internet 24/7. Tiny electronics will be embedded in environments, augmenting reality (think Flickr images with comments in 3D everywhere you look). Interaction with virtual personalities as a primary interface. Effective language technologies will allow communication at any time with anyone in the world speaking any language.
2029: An Intimate Merger
- reverse engineering of brain completed
- computer passes the Turing Test
- non-biological intellegence combines — the subtlety and pattern recognition strength of human intelligence with the speed memory and knowledge sharing of machine intelligence
Look for similar stuff from Ray on YouTube!
Salvador Avila
Las Vegas-Clark County Library District
Head of Reference
Presentation Title:
You are becoming me and I am becoming you!
Setting the record straight on Latinos being the majority population in the US
The title of Salvador’s presentation suggests that intermarriage and the blending of cultures is changing the population landscape in America. The future of service to Spanish speakers and Latinos is unpredictable according to Salvador. Below are additional notes on this presentation.
Between 1970 and 2000, immigration dominated growth (1st generation)
Between 2000 and 2020, 2nd generation immigrants will dominate growth – 46% will speak English as a first language and only 7% will speak Spanish as a first language
This changes service!
Serving the second generation: interview workshops and authors on resume writing and interviewing, focus on education.
“Libraries are in a unique position to serve this community.”
1st generation: “Government will solve problems” mentality
2nd generation: private organizations (ex. church) will solve problems
The forecast is for a rise in Asian languages – Spanish will not be as popular as it is now and the immigrants want to learn English according to a PEW Hispanic Center study. They can’t depend on the Spanish language, instead must assimilate. Those who immigrate before the age of 10 assimilate easier than those who immigrate after that age. (In this vein, use the term “Library” and not “Biblioteca”)
1999 – Libraries get C or D in services to Spanish Community… things improving but must dig deep to learn about the community, reach the emotional core.
Include the four Fs on all marketing:
Free
Fun
Food
Family
Four reasons Mexican’s don’t read:
- no time
- lazy
- books are boring
- reading is soporific
We need to use this information to make us relevant. Refrain services – “Think nationally, act locally.” Don’t sell libraries as a book or place –> hit the emotional cord. Go back, start over, find what’s important to them!
How to reach them:
- justify your existance in their community
- insure management and internal support
- attend training on diversity and awareness
- set goals, include them in your strategic plan
- build long-term relationship
On an individual basis: get frech perspective [reset!], avoid stereotypes, and reveal! Libraries can be a hard sell. Treat the Spanish community with respect. Suggestions: Touch them (a handshake is okay!), be informal and converse with them (don’t act like you are on the clock), accept playful teasing (don’t be serious and rigid). They hold feelings deeply and value social interaction. Don’t critique, push or demand perfection of them. Refer to them as “Latino” (their term) and not “Hispanic” (government term).
