Other Perspectives

Head over to The Speculist for some great thoughts on the 2008 Library Futures Conference!

Mary Catherine Bateson: Keynote Speaker

Mary Catherine was the keynote speaker on Tuesday at the Mid-Atlantic Library Futures Conference. Here are the bare-bones notes!

Librarians love books/information

Children teach adults how to be parents (couldn’t agree more)

Our understanding of other humans has changed repeatedly over the last century. We had to adjust our perspectives:

• women’s rights
• civil rights
• equality for homosesexuals
• disabled persons rights

Librarians are stewards of transformations.

Life expectancy – short-term v. long-term decisions/plans
We are a society that thinks on the short-term

There is a great value to those with memory. They help us survive.

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During the Q&A period, someone asked, “The boomers are coming! I’ve been saying it for years and finally they are knocking on our doors. What needs to be done to get libraries off their butts and address this?”

Mary answered… “Never has society supported youth over adults as they do now”

I disagree with this. I reported earlier on Bruce Coville’s speech at the NJLA Luncheon: “Children as actually despised by our culture. Today, they are consumers, stripped of any opportunity to meaningfully contribute to society. Currency is power. Adult men have power, kids have none and women are in the middle. We live in a short-term society where real power is long term.”

Mary seems to understand the latter part here but I agree with Coville. Today’s society is ill-equiped to raise children–relying on old models to teach a society completely changed. Children are babied through their 20s! This means they rely on their parents, join gangs, or are in other ways a complete waste of space. We are simply doing a terrible job of supporting our youth.

Bob Treadway

Bob Treadway and Associates 

Presentation Title:
20/20 Foresight: How to look into the future

Bob’s speech was a perfect compliment to Ray’s! They balanced each other out and gave a holistic point of view.  

• look ahead
• regularly contemplate
• Prediction: biggest mistakes
  • trying to be absolutely right
  • looking ahead narrowly through your expertise or comfort zone
  • no accounting for uncertainty and uninteded consequences
• instead Forecast! (Defined as foresight that accounts for uncertainty and adjust over time)
• Uncertainties: The Cone of Relative Certainty

“Predicting rain doesn’t count. Building arcs does”

You need a foresight filter; an alertness always turned on. Implication: consequence –> result –> after-effect

Customer of the Future – what will they want? What can we predict?
Range One: Relative Certainty
globalization
near-term economy
demographic progression
aging, retiring workers
pressure on funding
higher cost

Range Two: If A then B
elections
legislation
regulatory change

The Opinionated, Empowered Consumer

• 82% are strongly self-confident
• 81% trust only their opinion
• 72% say they’re better than anyone else

How did the American consumer get to this point?

• economic stability
• Internet
• collaboration
• globalization
• instant gratification
• telling children they’re special and important
• Do It Yourself era

Push v. Pull (ex. TiVo) : What I want, when I want it

Knowledge Hierarchy
data –> information –> knowledge –> expertise –> wisdom
The first two, Google can help with. Librarians can handle the last three!

 Range Three: Boundaries

• operating cost
• consumer expectations

Range Four: Uncertainties

• 15-20 year time horizons
• visonary leadership
• legal, regulatory roadblocks
• societal reactions
• avian flu jump

Work with SCENARIOS

Ray Kurzweil: Keynote Speaker

Kurzweil Technologies, Inc.
Author
Mid-Altantic Library Futures Conference 2007

Presentation Title:
Early in the Twenty-first Century: Knowledge will Underlie Everything

Ray delivered a dense, intense speech forecasting “with certainty” events that will take place in the next decades based on past trends. Below are notes on his speech [PowerPoint Slides].

Change is exponentially increasing (not constant in its growth but accelerating even in the speed of change). This applies to many information fields: Education, Health, Technology and soon Energy (as everything is fundamentally energy). Codify field: apply information theory to matter and energy meeting 100% of our needs (nanotechnology).

Democratized tools to create knowledge (the spread of movie making capability, sound recording, etc).

Yes, change is exponential but it does run out. Paradigm run for a while then subside… but a new paradgm is then created. The next step for Technology will be 3 dimensional.

We can predict overall trends but not individual success. The system is too chaotic but the final outcome can be clearly predicted.

Technology is shrinking! Software is buried in our infrastructure (in cell phones, medical equipment) and we don’t recognize its huge presence.

[Slide 54] Reverse Engineering the Brain: The ultimate source of the templates of intellegence
Information Technology growth is driving the economy. We can find clues to improving technology by studing how the brain works. How does a child that doesn’t know complicated mathmatics catch a fly ball with accuracy?

Ray predicts that in 2010, computers will disappear. Images will be written directly over ones retina. Ubiquitus high bandwidth connection to the Internet 24/7. Tiny electronics will be embedded in environments, augmenting reality (think Flickr images with comments in 3D everywhere you look). Interaction with virtual personalities as a primary interface. Effective language technologies will allow communication at any time with anyone in the world speaking any language.

2029: An Intimate Merger

• reverse engineering of brain completed 
• computer passes the Turing Test
• non-biological intellegence combines — the subtlety and pattern recognition strength of human intelligence with the speed memory and knowledge sharing of machine intelligence

Look for similar stuff from Ray on YouTube!

Salvador Avila

Las Vegas-Clark County Library District
Head of Reference

Presentation Title:
You are becoming me and I am becoming you!
Setting the record straight on Latinos being the majority population in the US

The title of Salvador’s presentation suggests that intermarriage and the blending of cultures is changing the population landscape in America.  The future of service to Spanish speakers and Latinos is unpredictable according to Salvador. Below are additional notes on this presentation.

Between 1970 and 2000, immigration dominated growth (1st generation)
Between 2000 and 2020, 2nd generation immigrants will dominate growth – 46% will speak English as a first language and only 7% will speak Spanish as a first language
This changes service! 

Serving the second generation: interview workshops and authors on resume writing and interviewing, focus on education.

“Libraries are in a unique position to serve this community.”

1st generation: “Government will solve problems” mentality
2nd generation: private organizations (ex. church) will solve problems

The forecast is for a rise in Asian languages – Spanish will not be as popular as it is now and the immigrants want to learn English according to a PEW Hispanic Center study. They can’t depend on the Spanish language, instead must assimilate. Those who immigrate before the age of 10 assimilate easier than those who immigrate after that age. (In this vein, use the term “Library” and not “Biblioteca”)

1999 – Libraries get  C or D in services to Spanish Community… things improving but must dig deep to learn about the community, reach the emotional core.

Include the four Fs on all marketing:
Free
Fun
Food
Family

Four reasons Mexican’s don’t read:

1. no time
2. lazy
3. books are boring
4. reading is soporific

We need to use this information to make us relevant. Refrain services – “Think nationally, act locally.” Don’t sell libraries as a book or place –> hit the emotional cord. Go back, start over, find what’s important to them!

How to reach them:

1. justify your existance in their community
2. insure management and internal support
3. attend training on diversity and awareness
4. set goals, include them in your strategic plan
5. build long-term relationship

On an individual basis: get frech perspective [reset!], avoid stereotypes, and reveal! Libraries can be a hard sell. Treat the Spanish community with respect. Suggestions: Touch them (a handshake is okay!), be informal and converse with them (don’t act like you are on the clock), accept playful teasing (don’t be serious and rigid). They hold feelings deeply and value social interaction. Don’t critique, push or demand perfection of them. Refer to them as “Latino” (their term) and not “Hispanic” (government term).